Hot Homes, Hidden Patterns: Seattle Real Estate Has a Secret Season
Over the past decade, Seattle has experienced one of the hottest real estate markets in the nation. It can sometimes feel like it’s never the right time to get into the market. But, did you know that the Seattle real estate market has a consistent seasonal rhythm that is just as unique to Seattle as the long summer nights?
To analyze this data, I examine hot homes in the most desirable neighborhoods. Why? Because no matter what outside factors or outliers exist, these homes are least impacted. This subset focuses exclusively on those areas and property types — eliminating condos, studios, DADUs, waterfront homes, short sales, new construction, townhomes, homes with a view and areas with a lower ratio of homes on high traffic corridors.
Sales by Month — A Consistent Pattern
Each year the amount of homes sold fluctuates — and some years have more turnover than others — but what is consistent is the seasonal pattern that emerges. Economic outliers, interest rates — there is a long list of disruptors. But the pattern always returns.
A home typically takes about 28 days to close after going under contract — meaning closed sales data is essentially showing you decisions buyers made a month ago. We look at pending sales rather than closed sales to see the real-time picture of buyer activity. Pending sales show you what’s happening right now.
Now look at when listings come to market. The supply side tells an equally consistent story — inventory floods in every May and June, just as buyer urgency begins to ease.
Lastly, pending sales is compared against inventory — known as absorption rate = pending sales ÷ active listings. Absorption rate on closed sales represents decisions buyers made in the previous 4–6 weeks. Therefore, absorption rate on pending sales is a real-time indicator of supply vs. demand.
Averaged across all 13 years of complete data, the seasonal pattern is undeniable. Buyer demand peaks in February–April while listings are still thin — then the June listing flood arrives and absorption drops.
What Have Recent Years Shown?
The last six to seven years have been anything but normal — a global pandemic, historic interest rate drops, a rate correction that doubled borrowing costs in under a year, and ongoing economic uncertainty. These disruptions compressed what used to be a gradual, easier-to-read seasonal pattern into something that looks almost unrecognizable on a chart. But here’s what an agent who was active before 2020 will tell you: the pattern was always there, and it has continued to reassert itself every single time the dust settled.
When Are Prices Going to Drop?
Another great question — and one I am asked often. Despite interest rates holding strong and the economic uncertainty of recent years, prices in these neighborhoods have continued to steadily rise. The disruptions of 2022 caused a brief dip — but prices recovered fully and climbed to new highs. Here’s what the data shows:
Or maybe you’re waiting for rates to drop. Here’s what 35 years of mortgage rates looks like — and why 6–7% is historically not unusual at all:
Every 1% drop in interest rate increases buying power by roughly 10% — which means when rates drop, prices typically rise by a similar amount as more buyers flood back in.
Example: You wait for rates to drop from 6.0% to 5.5%. Based on the 1/10 rule, prices rise ~5%. A $1,000,000 home becomes $1,050,000.
| Scenario | Home Price | Rate | Monthly P&I |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy today | $1,000,000 | 6.0% | $4,796 |
| Wait for rate drop | $1,050,000 | 5.5% | $4,769 |
Your monthly payment is nearly identical — but you paid $50,000 more for the home. You can always refinance a rate. You can’t renegotiate the purchase price.
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett
- Don’t wait. When rates drop, who’s to say we won’t see a repeat of 2021? Ask yourself: am I the only one waiting for rates to drop?
- Buy when others aren’t looking. November through January is your window — motivated sellers, thin competition, and a sold-to-list ratio that actually leaves room to negotiate.
June through August is an underrated window. October through December is the next opportunity. And the 1/10 rule changes everything about how you think about rates. Read the full buyer guide →
The data tells a clear story for sellers too — the highest sold-to-list ratios, the thinnest competition, and the most motivated buyers all converge in a very specific window. Read the full seller guide →
The Seattle market has a rhythm. It has repeated for 12+ years across rising rates, falling rates, a pandemic, and a recovery. The buyers and sellers who understand this rhythm don’t try to time the market — they use the cycle strategically.
And sometimes timing isn’t a choice. Life happens — a job change, a divorce, a growing family — and you have to move when you have to move. That’s okay. Knowing where you are in the cycle doesn’t just help you pick the perfect moment. It helps you set realistic expectations, price correctly, and make smart decisions within whatever window you have.
You now have the data. You have the edge. Let’s talk about how to use it.
